Conforming mortgages are getting more expensive — but not because of mortgage rates. 

To protect against further weakness in the housing sector, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are instituting “delivery fees” on all conforming mortgages, effective March 2008.

Fannie Mae’s Adverse Market Delivery Charge and Freddie Mac’s Market Condition Delivery Fee will add a one-time, quarter-percent fee to every home loan purchased from mortgage originators.

This means that on a $100,000 conforming mortgage, the borrower could:

1. Pay a $250 fee out-of-pocket
2. Accept a slightly higher interest rate that “finances in” the higher fee

Because the fee is in percentage terms, as the loan size increases, so does the fee.  A $300,000 mortgage will carry a $750 fee, for example.

Unfortunately, mortgage borrowers may not get to choose on how they pay the extra cost.  Many mortgage lenders are just adding it to their rate sheets. 

Be aware, the 0.25% fee does not apply to all loans — only to loans sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  This specifically excludes portfolio loans and sub-prime loans.

If you’re not sure for what type of loan you are applying, be sure to ask.

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The Fed lowered the Fed Funds Rate by 0.250%.  The rate decrease was not well-received, though, as many investors were calling for a deeper cut of a half-percent. 

In response, dollars moved from stock markets to bond markets and, therefore, mortgage rates fell.

Because it is tied to the Fed Funds Rate, Prime Rate fell by 0.250% yesterday, too.  Holders of home equity lines of credit and credit card debt benefited from the change and will see lower interest costs in next month’s statements.

In the statement above — as explained by The Wall Street Journal — the Fed expresses concern about the consumer and business slowdowns.  This leaves the possibility of future Fed Funds Rate cuts open.

Source
Parsing the Fed Statement
The Wall Street Journal Online
December 11, 2007

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-fedparse0712.html

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Among lingering doubts about housing and credit markets, and a general uncertainty about the U.S. economy, the mortgage bond market tanked towards the latter part of last week. 

As investors moved away from mortgage bonds, mortgage rates forcefully bounced off their two-year lows.

A major factor behind last week’s run-up in rates is the market expectation for Tuesday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. 

Those expectations sharply shifted after Friday’s strong employment report from the Census Bureau and dragged rates along with them.

Prior to the jobs report, markets were expecting that the FOMC would lower the Fed Funds Rate by a half-percent.  After the report’s data showed inflationary hints, though, that expectation changed to a quarter-percent.

This is important to mortgage rate shoppers because inflation is the enemy of mortgage bonds.  Typically, as inflation rises, so do mortgage rates.

The FOMC adjourns from its one-day meeting Tuesday and will make an announcement to the markets at 2:15 P.M. ET.  Expect volatility before and after the press release. 

Currently, the Fed Funds Rate sits at 4.500%.

Also hitting the wires this week is the Consumer Price Index (Wednesday) and the Producer Price Index (Thursday).  These two reports are closely tied to inflation, too, so if the readings come in hotter than expected, mortgage rates will move higher in response.

CPI is also known as “The Cost of Living” index.  PPI is its “business” counterpart.

(Image courtesy: The Wall Street Journal Online)

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Thursday, the White House revealed its HOPE NOW program, aiming to help sub-prime borrowers freeze their initial “teaser” rates for a period of five years.

The program is receiving a lot of ink in the newspaper dailies but sometimes it’s unclear exactly what the program offers, and to whom.

Let’s look at the details and see who qualifies and who doesn’t.

Mortgage loan type

Qualifies: Sub-prime mortgage
Doesn’t qualify: everyone else.

Date of mortgage origination

Qualifies: January 1, 2005 to July 31, 2007
Doesn’t Qualify: Everyone else

Date of first interest rate reset

Qualifies: January 1, 2008 to July 31, 2010
Doesn’t qualify: Everyone else

Previous mortgage delinquencies

Qualifies: No more than one 60-day late in the last 12 months
Doesn’t qualify: Multiple 60-day lates, or one 90-day late

Potential payment increase

Qualifies: Payment will increase by more than 10% at first adjustment
Doesn’t qualify: Everyone else

Credit score

Qualifies: Less than 660; less than 10% improvement since closing
Doesn’t qualify: Everyone else

Because of the restrictions, only a small subset of the 1.8 million sub-prime loans issued between January 1, 2005 and July 31, 2008 are eligible for the rate freeze.  A New York Times article estimates that figure to be 360,000.

For homeowners not qualified for the HOPE NOW program, mortgage servicers will attempt remortgage their loans, or evaluate the homeowner for a rate reduction and/or for debt forgiveness on a case-by-case basis.

If you’re not sure whether you have a sub-prime loan, or whether you can benefit from the “interest rate freeze” program, reach out to your loan officer or call HOPE NOW.

Source
Who Qualifies for Help, And What Qualifies as Subprime?
Ruth Simon
The Wall Street Journal Online
December 7, 2007

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Credit scores are the best predictor of how a homeowner will pay on a mortgage, so it’s no surprise that credit scores will play a bigger role in mortgage financing in 2008.

Actually “that date” is more clearly defined.  It’s March 1, 2008.

Beginning March 1, 2008, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will subject the bulk of their mortgage products to the interest rate adjustments when the loan-to-value exceeds 70%.

Credit scores will determine the amount of the rate adjustment.

• Credit scores between 660-679: 0.750% increase to rate
• Credit scores between 640-659: 1.250% increase to rate
• Credit scores between 620-639: 1.750% increase to rate
• Credit scores below 620: 2.000% increase to rate

For example, a person with a 6.250% mortgage rate would see their rate increase to 7.500% just because they carry a 650 credit score.  It would jump to 8.000% for a 635 credit score.

Because the credit score adjustment does not go into effect until March 1, 2008, there is plenty of time to be proactive if you think you’ll trigger the rate increase.

If you are planning to purchase a home on or after March 1, 2008, it would be prudent to have your credit scores checked as soon as possible.  If your scores are below 680, or teetering on the edge, take ownership of your credit and start working to improve your score.

A terrific source of non-biased credit scoring information is myFICO.com.

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As a homeowner, your financial obligations extend beyond your monthly mortgage payment.  Periodically, you are also required to pay real estate taxes and homeowner’s insurance premiums.

Each month, you pay your mortgage payment to a company called a “mortgage servicer” (because they “service” your mortgage each month). 

In addition to the risk of not getting paid by homeowners, servicers also face two other risks related to homeowners:

1. That a homeowner’s real estate tax bill will become delinquent and will be sold to a third-party
2. That a homeowner’s residence will face catastrophic damages during a lapse in insurance coverage

But these risks can be mitigated.

Rather than assume that homeowners will pay on time, mortgage servicers can pay these bills on the homeowner’s behalf when they come due while passing that cost on as a mortgage statement line-item.

This service is commonly called “escrow”.

The escrow payment varies from homeowner to homeowner, of course.  It’s the sum of the amounts due annually for real estate taxes and insurance, divided by 12 months in the year. 

That yields a monthly amount which is then added to the homeowner’s mortgage statement each month, and added to a bucket of funds held on reserve by the servicer.

For example, a $3,000 tax bill with a $600 insurance policy = $3,600 in costs annually = $300 monthly paid into escrow monthly.

A $1,500 mortgage payment, therefore, would require a $1,800 check to be written to the mortgage servicer each month.

When a mortgage servicer “escrows” on behalf of a homeowner, it knows that taxes and insurance will get paid on time, thereby protecting its own interests.  This is one reason why some mortgage lenders offer lower rates and/or fees for borrowers that choose to escrow. 

If you’re unsure about whether escrowing is right for you, be sure to ask questions.  As with all financial decisions, there are reasons to choose either route.

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October’s New Homes Sales report showed a modest month-over-month improvement from September.  

Before we interpret that to mean that the housing market is rebounding, though, let’s consider the fallibility of the New Home Sales report. 

On the Census Bureau’s Web site, there is a disclaimer about the validity of the data.  Paraphrased, it reads:

A new housing unit is considered sold when a contract is signed and/or earnest money is exchanged.  There is no follow up to verify if the sale was closed, or canceled. 

Therefore, if cancellations are high, the New Homes Sales data can be overestimated.

Couple that with the 35-45% cancellation rates as reported by builders and you start to get the picture.

However!  The disclaimer also includes the following text (again, paraphrased):

A housing unit will never be counted twice so if a previously canceled unit is later sold again, the Census Bureau does not count this sale a second time. 

Therefore, when demand is strong, New Home Sales can be underestimated.

In other words, the New Homes Sales report overestimates sales figures in a weak market, and underestimates them in a strong market.

The long-term impact of October’s New Homes Sales report is unclear.  The only thing that is clear is that the monthly New Homes Sales report doesn’t tell us a whole lot.

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If you enjoy roller coaster rides, last week’s mortgage markets were a delight.  Up and down mortgage rates went, trying to find a balance between inflation and recession (or maybe neither).

A major cue for markets last week came from a high-ranking Fed official who raised expectations for future cuts to the Fed Funds Rate.  Currently, the Fed Funds Rate sits at 4.500%. 

For homeowners, it is unclear how changes in the Fed Funds Rate will impact mortgage rates.  Contrary to popular belief, changes in the Fed Funds Rate are not tied to changes in mortgage rates. 

This chart shows, for example, how the FFR increased more than 3.00% between 2004 and 2006 while mortgage rates only edged higher. 

Similarly, the recent drops in the Fed Funds Rate have been accompanied by only a slight reduction in mortgage rates.

Instead, mortgage rates are based on the prices of mortgage bonds and recently the demand for the bonds has been erratic.  This is why mortgage rates have been erratic, too.  As demand goes up, mortgage rates come down.  The reverse is true, too.

This week, demand for mortgage bonds should be tied to expectations from the Fed and its December 11 meeting, and to this Friday’s employment data.  Many economists believe that the Fed will take some cues from Friday’s report so the numbers will take on added significance.

The economy is expected to have added 75,000 jobs in November, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.8%.  If the actual numbers are stronger than the estimates, expect that mortgage rates will increase in response.

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