The economy posted stronger-than-expected data last week, reigniting fears of inflation on Wall Street.The positive-slanted economic news caused conforming mortgage rates to rise by another 1/2 percent last week.

It marked the second week in a row of soaring mortgage rates and the fifth week out of six that rates have moved higher.

Conforming mortgage rates are now as high as they’ve been all year and rest at the levels of December 2008.

The biggest news of last week is likely to influence mortgage rates this week, too.

On Friday, we learned that 345,000 Americans lost their jobs in May.  And while that’s an awfully large number, it wasn’t nearly as bad as Wall Street had expected.  Furthermore, the Unemployment Rate spiked to over 9 percent.

Now, again, with respect to the Unemployment Rate, the number looks bad, but the data may be a positive.  This is because the Unemployment Rate measures Americans in the workforce versus the unemployed actively looking for jobs.

If the number of people trying to re-enter the workforce starts to surge, it’s basic math that Unemployment Rates will rise.  This is what some economists think happened last month and it served as the backdrop for Friday’s rate surge.

With fewer Americans expected to be out of work, consumer spending seems poised to rebound in the months ahead, pushing the economy out of recession sooner than expected.  If the sentiment holds this week, mortgage rates should rise even more.

Without much new data this week, markets are likely to trade on emotion — a difficult situation for rate shoppers.  Conforming mortgage rates have been extremely volatile since May and are changing every few hours.  If you see a rate you like, consider locking it.

Wait around too long, and it’ll be gone.

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Mortgage rates soared again Monday, tacking on a half-percent in a day for the second time in under a week.Each half-percent adds $62 to a $200,000 home loan’s monthly payment, or $744 per year.

For home buyers recently under contract, it’s a gut-wrenching time to be shopping for a home loan.  Morning mortgage rates have been typically gone by early-afternoon and — in some cases — lenders have changed rates five times in one-day span.

The reasons for surge in rates are varied, but each is related to the idea that the economic recession may be nearing its end.

• Consumer optimism is as high as it’s been all year
• Consumer spending is falling at a slower pace than in months prior
• China’s factories reported an expansion in business

Each of these points bodes well for the economy and pushes Wall Street investors towards more risky investments.  As a result, “safe” investments get sold — including mortgage-backed bonds, the basis for conforming mortgage rates.

For as long as the future of the economy remains in question, expect mortgage rates to remain volatile.  We won’t get half-point rate swings or five pricings in a day every day, but both are becoming more common.

Be careful when shopping for a mortgage — the rate you’re quoted may not last long.

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Mortgage markets took a beating last week, sending conforming mortgage rates soaring Wednesday afternoon.  Despite a modest recovery Thursday and Friday, though, mortgage rates still moved higher on the week overall.It was the fourth time in 5 weeks that mortgage rates worsened.

By far, the biggest news of last week was Wednesday’s mortgage market meltdown.

Beginning shortly after 1:00 PM ET, and in the span of about 90 minutes, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate soared.  The action was so swift that a number of mortgage lenders shut down their Lock Desks, unwilling to accept new business.

There was no “news”-like reason for the action, by the way — just a general feeling on Wall Street that the U.S. government’s massive debt load may lead to inflation sometime in the future.   As inflationary fears rise, mortgage rates often rise with them and this is what we witnessed happened Wednesday.

Markets regained their cool Thursday and Friday, but could only erase half of Wednesday’s surge.

This week, look for data to determine whether mortgage rates rise or fall.  Monday and Friday will be the biggest days.

On Monday, in addition to releasing consumer spending data from May, the government publishes the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.  If either number comes in hotter-than-expected, mortgage rates should rise.

Similarly, if Friday’s employment data is better-than-expected, rates should rise, too.  More working Americans means more consumer spending and spending makes up two-thirds of the economy.

Markets expect that another 550,000 workers lost their jobs last month, raising the 12-month total to 5.65 million.

Between Monday and Friday, a number of Federal Reserve members will be speaking publicly, including Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.  Each speaker’s statements, of course, can influence mortgage rates as well.

Overall, markets remain volatile and mortgage rates are jumpy.  If you find a rate that fits your budget and with which you can be comfortable, consider locking it in before the news gives the rate reason to change.

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Conforming mortgage rates rose by 0.625 percent Wednesday.  Yes, you read it right.  Zero-point-six-two-five percent.The surprise surge in pricing started shortly after 1:00 P.M. ET, then continued all the way until the market’s closing.  It was the sharpest one-day surge in mortgage rates in recent history. Perhaps ever.

For mortgage rate shoppers swept up in the surge, monthly payments are now higher by $29 per $100,000 borrowed.

That’s a significant shift.

For as rare as Wednesday’s events were, though, middle-of-the-day, 0.625 percent rate changes don’t just happen.  Yesterday, the action was the result of a confluence of factors, including:

• Rising oil prices and gas prices
• Optimistic predictions about the end of the recession
• Concerns over the U.S. total debt load
• Fears of inflation

In addition, momentum trading played a role.

As markets worsened, selling begat more selling, amplifying Wall Street’s total losses.  As mortgage bond prices fell, mortgage rates went up.  By a lot.

Mortgage markets are notoriously fickle and yesterday’s events proved it.  Days like Wednesday are precisely why insiders recommend shopping for mortgage rates in a compressed timeframe.  The faster you finish, the lower the risk of losing low interest rates to new market conditions.

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Mortgage markets reacted poorly to not-as-strong-as-expected housing data and employment data last week causing mortgage rates to rise on the week overall.It was the third time in 4 weeks that mortgage rates were up.

To the detriment of rate shoppers, mortgage rates were especially volatile Thursday and Friday.

As an increasing number of traders punched out ahead of the 3-day weekend, the mortgage pricing swings grew wider and wider.  Rates were at their lowest last week on Wednesday morning.  By Friday, some mortgage rates were higher by as much as 3/8 percent.

This week, with traders coming back to work, the pace of change should slow a bit, if not for the volume of closely-watched data expected to be released.

The data with the largest potential impact on mortgage rates this week is related to the housing market.  There will be 3 separate reports — each expected to show that housing is still weak, but not as weak as it was.

• Tuesday: Case-Shiller Price Index
• Wednesday: Existing Home Sales
• Thursday: New Home Sales

However, because real estate is local in nature and these reports are broadly national, it’s important to not read into them too much.  They’re good for an overview but shouldn’t be used as the basis for an offering price.

In addition, there will be two consumer confidence surveys released — one on Tuesday and one on Friday.

Consumer surveys can be important in a recovering economy because as confidence rises, spending often does, too, and consumer spending represents two-thirds of the U.S. economic engine.  If confidence is rising, expect the stock market to benefit and the mortgage bond market to suffer.

This would lead mortgage rates higher.

It’s unlikely that mortgage markets will display the same volatility this week as compared to last week, but that doesn’t mean that mortgage rates won’t change.  With so much data crossing the wires in the next 4 days, it’s likely that Friday’s rates will be different from today’s.

Therefore, if you’ve found a rate and payment with which you can be comfortable, consider locking it in.  It’s unlikely to last long.

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Rates go up, rates go down.  Catch them while you can.

After Wednesday’s mortgage market rally drove rates down by a bunch, Thursday’s sell-off pushed them right back up.

This has been a common pattern in the skittish world of mortgage rates this year.

With the U.S. economy still teetering between recession and growth, markets are looking for signals anywhere it can find them.  Thursday’s clue came from a government report showing that more Americans are collecting unemployment benefits than at any point in history.

Strangely, mortgage rates rose on the news.

We call it “strange” because weak economic data has tended to draw mortgage rates lower lately to the benefit of prospective home buyers and would-be refinancers. Lower rates make homes more affordable.

Thursday, though, the pattern broke.

The main reason why mortgage rates rose Thursday isn’t because of the employment report or any other piece of data.  Rates rose Thursday for the same reason that they had dropped the day prior — the Federal Reserve.

On Wednesday, the released minutes from the Fed’s last meeting suggested that the group might make a larger mortgage market intervention.  On Thursday, in the face of worsening jobs data, markets bet the Fed wouldn’t.

Mortgage rate shoppers, unfortunately, got caught in the crosshairs.

Rates can — and do — change quickly, without warning.  And, thus far this year, the changes have been extra sudden.  This is one reason why it’s often prudent to lock a mortgage rate as soon as you find one that’s agreeable.  Wait too long, and it could be gone.

Expect more volatility today with traders leaving early for Memorial Day Weekend.  Less volume means more chances for rates to change.

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Mortgage rates fell after the Federal Reserve released its April 28-29, 2009 meeting’s internal notes Wednesday.Officially known as “Fed Minutes”, the report is an in-depth account Federal Reserve’s last get-together, detailing the discussions and decisions that create our country’s monetary policy.

It’s the lengthy companion to the Federal Reserve’s brief, post-meeting press release.

For comparison’s sake, the Federal Reserve’s April 29 announcement contained 383 words.  The minutes of that same meeting held 5,754 words.  The extra words offer extra details about what the next monetary steps might be for the nation’s policymakers.

This is a big deal to markets because investors are always looking for clues about what’s next — especially considering how the April Fed Minutes showed that group discussed increasing its $1.25 trillion mortgage market commitment to something bigger.

Remember that the Fed’s mortgage-buying program is largely credited with keeping mortgage rates low this year.  If there’s more buying ahead, that should help rates stay similarly low.  Mortgage rates fell Wednesday in anticipation of a move like that.  For now, though, the Fed Minutes are just talk.

As economic conditions change later this year, so might the Federal Reserve’s stance.

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After a dreadful start to the month of May, mortgage markets improved last week, pushing mortgage rates lower overall.It was the first week since late-April in which mortgage rates fell.

The biggest reason rates improved last week was because the economic optimism that was responsible for the stock market’s 30% gain since March faded somewhat.

Retail Sales came in weaker-than-expected as did Initial Jobless claims.  Both of these data points show that the economy may not be recovering as quickly as investors had wanted to believe.

Combined with gas prices ballooning more than 10 percent over the last 3 weeks, it’s clear that consumer spending will be muted this summer and into fall.

Consumer spending is important because it accounts for two-third of the economy.  If it’s slowed for any reason, the economy is less likely to emerge from the current recession as quickly as had been anticipated.

This is good news for mortgage rates because a slow economy tends to draw investors out of stocks and into bonds, including the mortgage-backed kind.  More mortgage bond demand leads to higher bond prices and, therefore, lower bond yields and mortgage rates.

This week, there isn’t much data to watch and, because of Memorial Day, trading will be very light towards Thursday and Friday.

It’s during “calm” weeks like this that mortgage rates can make huge movements up or down.  With no official announcements against which traders can make bets, every piece of news is a surprise.

If you’re still floating a mortgage rate, take some risk off the table by locking in this week.

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Getting approved for a home loan isn’t getting easier, but it doesn’t appear to be getting much more difficult, either.In its quarterly survey to member banks, the Federal Reserve asked senior bank loan officers whether “prime” residential mortgage guidelines had tightened in the last 3 months.

Nearly 50 percent of banks said guidelines tightened last quarter, a much lower figure than during all of 2008 and a signal that mortgage lending may be turning a corner.

Guidelines remain restrictive, however.

Versus 18 months ago, lenders subject would-be borrowers to all of the following:

• Higher minimum credit score thresholds
• Larger minimum downpayments
• Lower debt-to-income requirements
• Mandatory fees based on certain loan traits

In addition, the availability of subordinate financing has all but disappeared when a home’s loan-to-value exceeds 80 percent.

Combined, these changes preclude a lot of Americans from getting access to today’s low rates but that could change in the coming months if the Fed’s reported trend continues.

Some experts believe that credit tightening started the recession.  Credit loosening, therefore, could help lead us out.

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Home affordability improved again Wednesday after the government reported worse-than-expected results for April’s Retail Sales report.Mortgage rates edged lower for the third consecutive day.

The impetus for the rate rally this week may be a long-awaited stock market correction.  After touching multi-year lows in mid-March, the Dow Jones added 30 percent going into last Friday.

It has since lost close to 300 points and as those dollars leave the stock market, they’re finding their way toward bonds.

The demand is pushing bond prices up which, in turn, causes rates to fall.

Yesterday morning, the rally in rates picked up steam on the heels of April’s Retail Sales report.  With figures off a half-percent from March and roughly 7 percent from 2008, investors are concerned that consumer spending may not be as strong into the summer months as previously expected.

Consumer spending is important because it comprises two-thirds of the economy and is believed to be the way out of the current recession.

If expectations of a recovery caused mortgage rates to rise recently, it makes sense that a revision of those expectations would cause rates to fall.

Markets are fickle, however, and the slightest bit of “good news” could pump cash back into stocks at the expense of bonds.  Until then, however, enjoy the low rates — they may not last long.

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