Archive for the ‘Trading Market News’ Category

Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment – WHAT A WEEK!

Well, no surprise that today was volatile.  ADP hasn’t been a good indicator for months, and rumors were swirling that Nonfarm Payrolls were going to tank.  Can I say Market Mover Trading is a perfect way to turn bad news into good news?  Can I get a woo-hoo?

Nonfarm Payroll/Unemployment Claims 8-6-10

Nonfarm Payroll/Unemployment Claims 8-6-10

I even lost one trade when I anticipated the correction too early…still up 5.75 points (57.50% or $287.50 on one $500 contract) for the day.

For my week (8/2 – 8/6), I was up 20.25 points (202.50%!!!) on my money.  I won 12 of my 14 trades.  I LOVE Market Mover Trading.  You will, too!

Popularity: 26% [?]

Initial Unemployment Claims – It’s Good When It’s Bad…

New Unemployment Claims went up this week to 479,ooo; about 19,000 more than expected.  Not fun for those out of work, but fun for Market Mover Trading traders:

Initial Unemployment Claims, 8-5-10

Initial Unemployment Claims, 8-5-10

$150 in the blink of an eye.  I ♥ Market Mover Trading.

Popularity: 24% [?]

Pending Home Sales + MMT Tools = YAY!

Can you sense a theme here?  My third day in a row of trading (basically) single news announcements with Market Mover Trading’s semi-automated tools and I am 3/3.  Actually, 8/8 trades.  3/3 days.  Weeee!  Today was Pending Home Sales.  After the Homebuyer Tax Credit expired in April, we have seen lackluster PHS in the months that reflected the expiration.  Duh.  Today was no different.  However, with Market Mover Trading, I don’t care if news is happy or sad, I just want volatility.  Volatility is my new bestest friend.  :)

Oh, and the Pending Home Sales news measures the change in the number of signed real estate contracts for existing single-family homes, condos and co-ops. The National Association of Realtors developed the pending home sales index as a leading indicator of housing activity. As such, it is a leading indicator of existing home sales, not new home sales. A pending sale is one in which a contract was signed, but not yet closed. It usually takes four to six weeks to close a contracted sale.

So, I set my tools prior to the announcement.  Even though I was pretty sure how the news would go, it doesn’t matter with the MMT Tools if I know that or not.  I sold short on the initial move, made 3 points (30%) and then .25 points on the correction.  I could have made more on the correction, but I forgot my fundamentals and got out too quickly.  A rookie mistake and to be expected.  That’s why I journal my trades and learn for next time.

Pending Home Sales, 8-3-10

Pending Home Sales, 8-3-10

Tomorrow, I will have two excellent opportunities to use my MMT Tools in this way; at 6:15 and at 8:00.  Stay tuned!

Popularity: 32% [?]

ISM Manufacturing PMI (So Exciting!)

Okay, so normally ISM Manufacturing PMI doesn’t make anyone’s skirt fly up.  We’ve gone over this before, but for you new readers and normal people who don’t retain stuff like this from month to month, the ISM Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) is a rating from 400 purchasing managers who are asked to rate the level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories.  Pretty boring for 99.9% of everyone.  HOWEVER, when you are trading news announcements with Market Mover Trading, ISM Manufacturing PMI becomes very, *very* exciting.  It’s what we at MMT call a “High Impact” announcement.  I love High Impacts.  :)   They usually mean more opportunity to jump in, jump out and make some money.

Last Friday, Jody taught me how to set my semi-automated MMT Tools at Infinity Futures so that I can capture the initial movement on a single news announcement AND then quickly capture the correction.  I don’t have a screenshot of my day last Friday, but I made *7* flippin’ points on the Chicago PMI & U of M Consumer Sentiment.  That is 70% on my initial investment.  Sim, of course (hey, I was trying out new tools!)  I was too excited to screenshot.  I literally thought I had died and gone to heaven.

So, I did it again today and simmed 2.25 points or 22.5%:

ISM Manufacturing PMI, 8-2-10

ISM Manufacturing PMI, 8-2-10

Yay for me!  Yay for Market Mover Trading!  Yay for MMT Tools!

If you would like to take control of your money and your financial future, give us a holler.  We can help!

Popularity: 27% [?]

Desperate For Any Good News

This market is desperate.  Desperate for a glimmer of hope, a light at the end of the tunnel, politicians with brains.  Whoops!  Did I just say that last part out loud? :)

So, New Home Sales went up today all of 0.01 – told in millions, that’s 10,000 homes.  The teeniest of moves up.  Barely a drop in a very tired, sad, empty bucket.  But the way the markets reacted, you would have thought we had a return to, IDK, 2001!  LOL!  Okay, I love volatile news announcements, so I’ll take it, but it’s just plain weird.

New Home Sales; 7-26-2010

New Home Sales; 7-26-2010

5 points on the initial move, 1.25 on the correction, 3 points on the similar move.  Okey-dokey, we’ll take it!!

Popularity: 26% [?]

Fat Finger Caused Sell Off?

ForexLive:

Major US bank had an order to sell $15 million of S&P e-mini contracts. Accidentally sold $15 billion.

Now, which bank?  Rumor is it’s Citi.

***Update:  Not sure this was an e-mini sell off.  Current rumor is that there was an accident with million/billion at Citi on a P&G stock sale.  Then this mistake triggered automated sell-offs when certain technical points were breached, most notably 1150 on the S&P.

I think we are going to HAVE FUN in the a.m. with the news announcements on the CME!  Woo-hoo!  We love volatility!  It’ll be a welcome change from the ho-hum reaction to Unemployment Claims today.

My prediction:  Do-gooder politicians who don’t know the stock market from the farmer’s market will now be clamoring for MORE “reform” for Wall St, computer programs and the Easter Bunny.  The market is the market, people.  It takes care of itself and the quick correction today is proof.

Me?  I’m going to go plant seeds.  Or play with wiener dawgs.

Popularity: 92% [?]

Dow, S&P Fall in High-Speed Drop – WSJ.com

Stocks plummeted in a flashback to the panicked trading of 2008. Investors fled everything from stocks and risky bonds and poured money into safe assets such as U.S. Treasuries.

Stocks began the day in negative territory but took a sharp dive south in the afternoon as selling built up and some indexes fell through key technical levels, sparking new waves of selling, investors said.

As losses piled up, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged more than 900 points. Key short-term credit markets—such as the rate for three-month Libor—began to show signs of stress and corporate bonds tumbled. The Dow was recently down about 485 points to 10380.

A 20% drop in the Dow would have been needed to halt trading. After 2:30 p.m. EDT, the 20% standard goes into effect. Before then, a 10% drop would have triggered at least a 30-minute halt. For the second quarter, 10% equals a 1,050-point drop in the Dow industrials while 20% equates to 2,150 points.

The exchange first implemented the circuit breakers in the wake of the market’s crash in October 1997. In 1998, the New York Stock Exchange set the triggers at 10%, 20% and 30% declines in the Dow for three levels of halts.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite, which also saw steep intraday drops, were down more than 4% each in recent activity.

Credit markets, too, are beginning to show signs of stress. Three-month Libor, the benchmark rate for billions of dollars in debt, shot to 0.42 percentage point from 0.37 percentage point, traders said. Corporate bond indexes also tumbled.

“It’s getting pretty ugly out there very fast,” Guy Lebas, chief fixed income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott. “There are definitely some major concerns that are escalating this afternoon.”

Investors remained deeply worried Thursday about the unfolding drama of Europe’s efforts to prop up Greece’s finances. Despite boisterous street protests, Greece’s parliament passed a bill with austerity measures that will give the country access to an assistance package jointly offered by the European Union and International Monetary Fund. Other EU members will take votes in their respective parliaments soon to approve spending on the package, with a first test expected in Germany on Friday.

“A lot of traders are getting carried out of their seats. There are lots of liquidations including hedge funds out of riskier assets,” Michael Franzese, head of Treasury trading at Wunderlich Securities in New York. “No one was expecting this sell off in stocks and the euro and a flight to quality trade is in full effect and it’s not yields levels it’s just capital preservation.”

While the bailout is expected to pass in Germany and elsewhere, it remains unpopular among voters who don’t want to see their respective countries’ resources used to solve Greece’s problems. Traders said that any hints of populist backlash could slow the package’s implementation or lead to omission of elements needed to prevent global economic contagion.

“Some of the panic-mode has come in now,” said Jay Suskind, senior vice president at Duncan-Williams. “What you’re seeing in Greece—even the pictures on the television with the protests starts to spark some real fear.”

With about an hour of trading to go, New York Stock Exchange composite volume has already topped 8 billion, making this the second-busiest day of the year in the market. The 2010 high was 8.4 billion shares, set on April 16 when the government filed fraud charges against Goldman Sachs.

Traders described Thursday’s trading as driven largely by automated sell orders, which piled up after several technical barriers were breached, in particular the 1150 level on the S&P.

“A lot of people thought we had support around that level, so there was some disappointment that it didn’t hold,” said Phil Roth, chief technical analyst at Miller Tabak.

But he added: “The numbers themselves are a little less important than the manner in which the market gets there. The important thing is that we’ve had a very non-traditional bull market, without any major correction or several years of advances alternating with sideways periods. This could be the thing that sets off a real correction, but we’ll have to wait and see.”

—Donna Kardos Yesalavich and Kristina Peterson contributed to this article.

Write to Peter A. McKay at peter.mckay@wsj.com

Popularity: 81% [?]

Credit Suisse’s Jonathan Basile on Pending Home Sales

Credit SuisseRiding The Tax Credit Roller Coaster…

Pending home sales surprised to the upside for a second straight month in March. Follow through for April existing home sales (up 6.8% in Mar) should be expected. Pending sales (contract signings) lead existing sales (closings) by a month or two.

The homebuyers’ tax credit has generated big swings in pending sales: +40% from Jan 2009 to Oct 2009; -20% from Oct 2009 to Jan 2010 (after original expiration); +14% from Jan 2010 to Mar 2010 (ahead of current expiration).

Apr 30 Deadline

Buyers need a contract in place by Apr 30 to qualify for the tax credit. Further upside for pending sales is likely next month.

Popularity: 92% [?]

MARCH NONFARM PAYROLLS RISE 162K, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 9.7%

Nonfarm payrolls for the month of March came in lower than anticipated, rising 162k following an upwardly revised 14k decline in February. January nonfarm payrolls also saw an upward revision, and now reflects a 14k increase after coming in at a 26k decline initially. Despite the headline improvement in March, the US unemployment rate remained a 9.7% for a third consecutive month.

March nonfarm payrolls were boosted by improvements in both goods-producing and service providing sectors. Goods-producing employment came in positive for since March 2007, rising 41k over the month while construction employment also managed to edge in positive territory with a 15k increase over the month. Manufacturing employment came in higher for a third straight month, rising 17k following a 6k rise prior.

Service sector employment managed its highest total in more than a year, gaining 121k in March following a 33k increase the prior month. Retail sector employment rose 15k in March following an 8k rise in February. Employment in transportation and warehousing came in at an 8k increase for the month following a 9k decline prior.

Employment in information services was down 12k in March following a 7k decrease the previous month. Employment in financial activities was down 21k in March following a 15k decline in February. Professional and business services employment was up 11k over the month following a 40k increase prior. Employment in education and health services was up 45k over the month, while leisure and hospitality employment rose 22k.

Government employment gained 39k over the month with Federal government employment up 48k thanks entirely to hiring for the 2010 Census. Average hourly earnings for private workers dropped 0.1% to $18.90 in March, reflecting the first monthly decline since April 2003.

Keith Lobodzinski

Popularity: 15% [?]

No Inflation, CPI Stays Flat; S&P 500 Futures Rise – Stocks To Watch Today – Barrons.com

It was a pretty boring morning, news-wise.  Can’t have everything, right?

from Tiernan Ray at barrons.com:

Deflation strikes again.

Following on a surprise dip in producer prices yesterday, the prices people are paying at the cash register fell in February, on average, it turns out this morning, based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The Consumer Price Index was unchanged in February from January, the Bureau reported, whereas economists had been expecting a 0.1% increase across the board.

With food prices rising “slightly” and energy prices dropping. Energy dropped half a percent, food rose 0.1%, and all other items rose 0.1%. Specifically, used cars rose 0.7%, medical care rose 0.4%, while apparel was off 0.7%.

Somewhat less concerting, initial claims for jobless insurance for the week ending last Friday fell by 5,000, to 457,000, though that was slightly higher than the 455,000 observers had been expecting, the Bureau reported this morning.

S&P 500 futures were up 1.3 points for the March contract, at 1,162.30.

The dollar’s strengthening this morning, rising to $1.3672 per Euro from last night’s closing cross of $1.3741.

And commodities have weakened, with futures on light sweet crude oil for delivery in May down 43 cents at $82.78 per barrel, and April futures on gold up $1.40 at $1,125.60 per ounce.

Popularity: 13% [?]

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