The S&P futures are tacking onto yesterday’s encouraging performance despite sluggish econ data from the EU and UK.  The S&P futures are also ignoring strength in the Dollar and appear to be on a trajectory of their own these days.  Meanwhile, the futures are creating further separation from their highly psychological 1100 level.  Confidence is gaining in America’s economic recovery, particularly in comparison to the EU and UK.  However, uncertainties are still hanging around the globe, particularly in Europe.  On a positive note, the RBA decided to raise rates again today, a show of confidence in the global economic recovery.  On the other hand, China’s banks made a large cut in lending during the month of February, and it remains to be seen whether tightening in China will dampen recoveries around the globe.  Market volatility could pick up tomorrow with the U.S. releasing its Services PMI and ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data.  Investors are already trying to soften the blow from a potential letdown in employment data because of adverse winter weather conditions.  However, tomorrow’s data points could have considerable influence nonetheless.  The UK will also release its Services PMI data along with an HPI figure, preceded by Australian GDP during the Asia trading session.  Hence, there will be more than enough data to move markets tomorrow, not to mention ECB and BoE policy meetings on Thursday.  That being said, market activity could increase as the week progresses.  Meanwhile, the S&P futures have taken down some key barriers, although they still face our 3rd tier downtrend line.  Our 3rd tier downtrend line nearly runs through 2010 highs, meaning a more significant breakout could be on the horizon should fundamental and psychological developments create favorable environment for U.S. equities.

Thanks to Fast Brokers News.  Tomorrow should be a fun trading day!

Every Friday, during the Market Mover Trading Training Call at 10 am MST, we get together at the Holiday Inn Express in Castle Rock.  Today, we came in early to watch an Infinity AT trading platform demo.  Then, MMT training class, where Sean and Jason taught us the newest MMT Strategies and Tools.  To round out, Zach Huyge gave MMT Traders a presentation on Social Media.

Are those some good looking heads, or what?

So, on top of a morning that brought us Initial Unemployment Claims that were 31,000 higher than expected (496,000 vs. 465,000), we then received more great (lol) news on MMT’s proprietary News Server.  This News Server is incredible; we get new news instantly.  Sandra Pianalto, the chief executive of the Cleveland Reserve Bank, stated that the “mortgage modification process has been more difficult than anticipated.”  After we recovered from peals of laughter, since any mortgage professional worth his or her salt could have told anyone who was listening two years ago that modifications were not going to get done at the level for which the Fed was pushing, we saw the futures market immediately take a 5 point plunge on that news.  We sold short.  Again, news doesn’t need to be happy for it to benefit Market Mover Traders!  The MMT News Server is a fabulous tool and my favorite in our MMT arsenal.

FEBRUARY CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SLIPS TO 46.0 FROM 56.5, PRESENT SITUATION INDEX FALLS TO 27YR LOW

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index dropped almost 11 points to 46.0 for the month of February from 56.5 in January. The February decline reflects the first monthly decline in three months. The February Present Situation Index fell to 19.4 from 25.3 in January. The Present Situation Index fell plunged to 63.8 from 77.3 in January.

The graph to the left shows the initial drop in futures on the e-mini S & P.  I was able to sell short and snag 6 points (60% return) on this drop.  The futures market then dropped furtherwithin 33 minutes of the news release.  Any news is good news for Market Mover Traders!!

Conference Board Consumer Research Center Director Lynn Franco says:

“ Concerns about current business conditions and the job market pushed the Present Situation Index down to its lowest level in 27 years. Consumers’ short-term outlook also took a turn for the worse, with fewer consumers anticipating an improvement in business conditions and the job market over the next six months. Consumers also remain extremely pessimistic about their income prospects. This combination of earnings and job anxieties is likely to continue to curb spending.”

6.2% described conditions as ‘good’ in February from 8.5% prior
46.3% described conditions as ‘bad’ in February from 44.7% prior
47.7% described jobs as ‘hard to get’ from 46.5% prior
16.7% expect conditions to improve over next 6months from 20.7% prior
15.3% expect conditions to worsen over the next 6months from 12.7% prior
24.6% see fewer jobs available from 18.9% prior

Thanks to Craig Ross with Infinity Futures Brokerage, who wrote the following article.  I use and recommend the Infinity AT platform.  With Infinity Futures, your orders always rest *on* the CME.  If you would like to give Infinity AT a try, contact Craig (his contact information is at the end of this article) for a free 4 week demo.

You have been using our Infinity AT platform in the simulated trading mode for the past couple of weeks which has hopefully given you a good idea of all of the great features our platform has to offer as well as how well you might expect to do in real live trading. In order to replicate real world trading as best as possible treat your simulated trades like they were in your real account: use realistic stops, trade the same number of contracts you will be trading in your real account, use the same strategies you plan on using in the real market, etc. Of course you can use the a simulator to experiment with, but once your experimenting is out of the way and you have your strategy down, stick to it over an extended period of time to see how it works.

While this practice is essential, the major difference is that you do not have the true psychological component of trading taking effect, which is the fear and greed associated with trading when you are risking real money. Many traders tend to gloss over this seemingly unimportant aspect of trading, but after you have your trading methodology down, I recommend you read (and follow) a book on the psychology of trading to get your mental state in order, also. Taking a loss when your stop order is hit doesn’t hurt as bad when it is just play money, but will you be able to place that stop loss order and let it get hit when real money is at stake? Likewise, letting a winning trade run isn’t too hard in simulation mode, but will you have the tendency to get out too early and book a small profit when it is the real deal? Make sure you are psychologically prepared to stick to your strategy and trading plan when your human emotions try to take over.

Once you think you have your trading methodology down and are mentally prepared to trade your hard earned risk capital it makes sense to start out small. Just like a pilot will train on a computer simulator for hours and then take the wheel of a real plane, they still need to solo practice in the air without passengers before they become reliable enough to be trusted with the lives of others. In other words, in the beginning you don’t need to trade as many contracts, as you might eventually do once you are confident with how your real trading has been progressing. When you decide to enter the real world of trading with a live account start out slow as you may find there are some additional emotional obstacles and trading mistakes that you need to get over or make adjustments for.

Beware – Some simulated trading platforms are designed to be easier than real life trading especially when it comes to limit orders, which will give you a false sense of security. For example, these platforms fill your limit orders even if the limit price is hit just once, which is not indicative of what you will experience in real trading. In electronic futures trading, limit orders are filled on a “first come, first served” basis, meaning if there are currently 600 contracts trying to sell at 855.50 and you place an order to sell 5 at 855.50, 600 contracts need to get filled before you start to get filled. So depending on how many contracts trade at each 855.50 tick you may need to see several ticks at that price before your order is filled, in fact 605 contracts have to trade at 855.50 before all 5 of your contracts are filled.  Our Infinity AT platform actually waits until the market trades through your limit order, in this case 855.75, before it will report a fill to you therefore, making it harder than real life trading in this regard. We would rather make this filling of your simulated limit orders harder, so you are prepared for the worst case scenario that will occur sometimes in the real trading environment.

Please feel free to call or email me if you have any additional questions on this subject.

Craig S. Ross
InfinityFutures.com
111 W Jackson BL, #2010
Chicago, IL 60604
800-322-8570
312-373-6250
Fax: 312-373-6256
ross [at] infinityfutures.com

Join us tonight for a informational webinar.  It’s short; just about 30 minutes, and everyone is muted except for the presenters to keep things on track.  You can submit your questions to Jason and Sean with a built-in IM feature.

Jody traded the news this morning.  Jason and Sean marked this as a High Impact trade and boy was it ever!  We had a friend over to watch the trade and Jody took just 1 point (10% return) because he was explaining a lot to our guest.  Took about a minute and a half.  We ate breakfast, had more coffee, and then he traded the next announcements, both Medium Impact  news and took another 1.25 points (12.5%).  This was a few hundred dollars profit for about 20 minutes of total work.  No charts, no studying, just the best trading system in the world (bragging on Jason and Sean here)!

If you would like to attend the webinar tonight in the comfort of your own home, please email us for the link.  No pressure, no hype…it is all that we have said it is and more.

You’ve probably noticed a new look and feel to our blog!  While Jody and I are still active and interested in our mortgage business, given the turmoil within the industry, we have decided to branch out.  We found something last summer that we know is truly revolutionary.  It allows regular people to earn additional money while only committing to  2-3 extra hours of work a week.  It’s called Market Mover Trading.

Market Mover Trading is an online-based education and software provider dedicated to helping anyone (and we do mean anyone) become a successful trader.  A MMT student can trade anything, but we primarily trade the news on futures contracts utilizing e-minis on the S & P (don’t be nervous if you don’t understand that last sentence). The greatest part about this is that we don’t care if the news is good or bad or if the market is moving up or down – we can make money regardless what happens.

For the entrepreneur, Market Mover Trading is even more.  Not only do MMT students have the potential to make serious money as Market Mover Traders, but they will be generously compensated as they help put a trader in every home in America and beyond.

Jody and I felt so strongly about this venture, we became Founding 50 Members of Market Mover Trading.  The company’s visionaries, Jason Anderson and Sean Larsgard, have delivered all that they promised us and more.  Please join us any Thursday at 7 pm Mountain Time for a free informational webinar.  Email or call us for more information.  Please be patient as we get this blog site focused on trading.

By its most common definition, a quitclaim deed is a document by which one person passes legal and financial ownership of a home to another person.

It’s also a way for an owner of a home to remove himself from the title to the property.

Often misspelled as “quick claim deed” or “quit claim deed”, quitclaim deeds have a multitude of applications, including:

• Assigning a home to a trust or entity
• Adding a partner to title after marriage
• Removing a partner from title after divorce

In order to quitclaim a property, the grantor must have the legal right to assign the property to a grantee, or else the quitclaim deed is worthless.  For example, you can’t quitclaim your interest in City Hall to your neighbor because you don’t actually own City Hall.

This is where quitclaim deeds vary from warranty deeds (or grant deeds) — the types of transfers that occur when real estate is sold.  In instances of the former, the title to a home is guaranteed to be clear.

Before using a quitclaim deed on your own home, consult an estate planning attorney.  Transferring real property can trigger ruin a will, or trigger taxes — it’s important to consult a professional for help.

Mortgage markets improved slightly last week overall, but closed out the week much worse from the best levels of the week.

On Wednesday, briefly, mortgage rates touched an 8-week low.  Following that, mortgage rates began to climb and stayed on an upward trajectory clear through Friday’s closing.

Rate shoppers suffered, realizing a 0.250 percent rise in rates – roughly $32 per month per $200,000 borrowed.

The biggest story of last week was the U.S. jobs report.  It showed the Unemployment Rate climbing to 9.7 percent and a loss of 216,000 jobs nationwide.

Neither figure was a surprise, per se, but Wall Street had visions of a stronger showing.  Investors want to see strength in housing and employment and, for now, they’re only getting the former.  And so long as the U.S. economic future is unclear, mortgage rates will remain unpredictable.

This week, there isn’t much news, but there are some stories to keep an eye on:

• The Fed’s regional economic summary releases Wednesday. Strength should drive rates up. Weakness should lower them.
• Gas prices are easing, a positive for the economy (and negative for rates) as the Holiday Shopping Season nears
• Two consumer confidence polls are released this week.  Confidence can lead to spending, a spur for the economy.

When there’s a lack of economic data, mortgage rates tend to trade on trends. If you’re shopping for a mortgage, watch for developing patterns and be ready to lock at a moment’s notice if mortgage rates are rising — rates tend to worsen with more speed than at they improve.

Volume figures to be light on Wall Street today as traders get a head start on Labor Day weekend.  It could make shopping for a mortgage a bona fide challenge.

Expect rate volatility this morning and afternoon and, therefore, by extension, expect wild swings in the Home Affordability Index.

As mortgage rates rise and fall, monthly mortgage payments do, too.

The relationship between “vacation days” and mortgage rate volatility stems from 2 facts — (1) Conforming mortgage rates are based on the price of mortgage-backed bonds, and (2) mortgage-backed bonds trade just like stocks.  You can’t make a deal without matching a buyer and a seller at a specific price.

With so many traders on vacation today, therefore, there are fewer opportunities to match buyers and sellers.  As a result, expect mortgage bond prices to rise and fall with more velocity than on a “normal” day — especially because the August jobs report was just released.

So far this morning, mortgage rates have been jumpy and are higher versus Thursday’s close.

That said, mortgage pricing is fluid, changing every minute of every day.  Today, expect those changes to be exaggerated.  If you have a chance to lock a favorable rate, consider taking it because, before long, the rate could be gone.