Posts Tagged ‘e-mini S&P’

Non-Farm Payroll

We expected to see some extra volatility coming into today’s trade after yesterday’s shenanigans.  But news that was mixed left the S&P having a whipsaw reaction.  Patient traders who made it through the first couple of minutes on the trade were rewarded.

Dawn-Renée's Non-Farm Payroll Trade 05-07-10

Dawn-Renée's Non-Farm Payroll Trade 05-07-10

Leading up the the announcement, you can see the S&P move up (yellow arrow moving up on the left side of the graphic) in anticipation of the move.  I don’t normally put orders in prior to the announcement, but the movement up made me expect that we would be likely to see immediate movement downward on the announcement.  So I sold short at 1131.25, expecting the market to move downward.  Instead, it started wicking (the skinny green section of the candle) up.  I drug my stop loss farther up once, expecting that it would go back down because even though the market added 90,000 more jobs than expected, most of those were temporary government census jobs and unemployment actually went up .2%!  I tried to drag my stop loss up a second time, but didn’t make it and it filled me at 1134, causing me to lose 3 points.  However, true to my Market Mover Trading education, I didn’t panic and instead focused on the news.  Sure enough, there was a correction downward as the market realized that the Non Farm Payroll news wasn’t actually good news!  I made 4 trades on the downward movement (see yellow arrow down in the middle of the graphic) using MMT’s proprietary Prediction Points for 6.50 points of profit. (S@1132, B@1129.75; S@1129.75, B@1128.75; S@1129.5, B@1127.75; S@1128.25, B@1126.75).  Then, using a MMT strategy, I suspected we would see similar movement (as the initial news), so I bought long and made an additional point.

So, for the day, even with the initial 3 point loss, I was up 4.5 points, which is 45% and $225 on one $500 contract.  I was 7/8 trades for the week and up 70%! Woo-hoo!  If I can learn and succeed at this without much brain damage, anyone can.  I spend WAAYYY more time blogging about this than I ever do actually setting up to trade and trading.

Popularity: 100% [?]

Fat Finger Caused Sell Off?

ForexLive:

Major US bank had an order to sell $15 million of S&P e-mini contracts. Accidentally sold $15 billion.

Now, which bank?  Rumor is it’s Citi.

***Update:  Not sure this was an e-mini sell off.  Current rumor is that there was an accident with million/billion at Citi on a P&G stock sale.  Then this mistake triggered automated sell-offs when certain technical points were breached, most notably 1150 on the S&P.

I think we are going to HAVE FUN in the a.m. with the news announcements on the CME!  Woo-hoo!  We love volatility!  It’ll be a welcome change from the ho-hum reaction to Unemployment Claims today.

My prediction:  Do-gooder politicians who don’t know the stock market from the farmer’s market will now be clamoring for MORE “reform” for Wall St, computer programs and the Easter Bunny.  The market is the market, people.  It takes care of itself and the quick correction today is proof.

Me?  I’m going to go plant seeds.  Or play with wiener dawgs.

Popularity: 96% [?]

Dow, S&P Fall in High-Speed Drop – WSJ.com

Stocks plummeted in a flashback to the panicked trading of 2008. Investors fled everything from stocks and risky bonds and poured money into safe assets such as U.S. Treasuries.

Stocks began the day in negative territory but took a sharp dive south in the afternoon as selling built up and some indexes fell through key technical levels, sparking new waves of selling, investors said.

As losses piled up, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged more than 900 points. Key short-term credit markets—such as the rate for three-month Libor—began to show signs of stress and corporate bonds tumbled. The Dow was recently down about 485 points to 10380.

A 20% drop in the Dow would have been needed to halt trading. After 2:30 p.m. EDT, the 20% standard goes into effect. Before then, a 10% drop would have triggered at least a 30-minute halt. For the second quarter, 10% equals a 1,050-point drop in the Dow industrials while 20% equates to 2,150 points.

The exchange first implemented the circuit breakers in the wake of the market’s crash in October 1997. In 1998, the New York Stock Exchange set the triggers at 10%, 20% and 30% declines in the Dow for three levels of halts.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite, which also saw steep intraday drops, were down more than 4% each in recent activity.

Credit markets, too, are beginning to show signs of stress. Three-month Libor, the benchmark rate for billions of dollars in debt, shot to 0.42 percentage point from 0.37 percentage point, traders said. Corporate bond indexes also tumbled.

“It’s getting pretty ugly out there very fast,” Guy Lebas, chief fixed income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott. “There are definitely some major concerns that are escalating this afternoon.”

Investors remained deeply worried Thursday about the unfolding drama of Europe’s efforts to prop up Greece’s finances. Despite boisterous street protests, Greece’s parliament passed a bill with austerity measures that will give the country access to an assistance package jointly offered by the European Union and International Monetary Fund. Other EU members will take votes in their respective parliaments soon to approve spending on the package, with a first test expected in Germany on Friday.

“A lot of traders are getting carried out of their seats. There are lots of liquidations including hedge funds out of riskier assets,” Michael Franzese, head of Treasury trading at Wunderlich Securities in New York. “No one was expecting this sell off in stocks and the euro and a flight to quality trade is in full effect and it’s not yields levels it’s just capital preservation.”

While the bailout is expected to pass in Germany and elsewhere, it remains unpopular among voters who don’t want to see their respective countries’ resources used to solve Greece’s problems. Traders said that any hints of populist backlash could slow the package’s implementation or lead to omission of elements needed to prevent global economic contagion.

“Some of the panic-mode has come in now,” said Jay Suskind, senior vice president at Duncan-Williams. “What you’re seeing in Greece—even the pictures on the television with the protests starts to spark some real fear.”

With about an hour of trading to go, New York Stock Exchange composite volume has already topped 8 billion, making this the second-busiest day of the year in the market. The 2010 high was 8.4 billion shares, set on April 16 when the government filed fraud charges against Goldman Sachs.

Traders described Thursday’s trading as driven largely by automated sell orders, which piled up after several technical barriers were breached, in particular the 1150 level on the S&P.

“A lot of people thought we had support around that level, so there was some disappointment that it didn’t hold,” said Phil Roth, chief technical analyst at Miller Tabak.

But he added: “The numbers themselves are a little less important than the manner in which the market gets there. The important thing is that we’ve had a very non-traditional bull market, without any major correction or several years of advances alternating with sideways periods. This could be the thing that sets off a real correction, but we’ll have to wait and see.”

—Donna Kardos Yesalavich and Kristina Peterson contributed to this article.

Write to Peter A. McKay at peter.mckay@wsj.com

Popularity: 84% [?]

Credit Suisse’s Jonathan Basile on Pending Home Sales

Credit SuisseRiding The Tax Credit Roller Coaster…

Pending home sales surprised to the upside for a second straight month in March. Follow through for April existing home sales (up 6.8% in Mar) should be expected. Pending sales (contract signings) lead existing sales (closings) by a month or two.

The homebuyers’ tax credit has generated big swings in pending sales: +40% from Jan 2009 to Oct 2009; -20% from Oct 2009 to Jan 2010 (after original expiration); +14% from Jan 2010 to Mar 2010 (ahead of current expiration).

Apr 30 Deadline

Buyers need a contract in place by Apr 30 to qualify for the tax credit. Further upside for pending sales is likely next month.

Popularity: 96% [?]

Selling Short, Buying Long. What?!?

So, much of the information on this site may appear to most people as gobbledygook if they aren’t traders.  Since non-traders are our main readership, we thought it would be helpful to occasionally explain what the heck we are talkin’ about.  Uh, ya think?  LOL!  So, anyway, here is the low-down on selling short and buying long.  It’s pretty simple, actually.

Y’all already know what ‘buying long’ is.  It’s the regular old way to make a profit.  Buy low, sell high.  You buy something at as low a price as you can, and then you sell it for more.  It’s called “marking up”.  Retailers do it all the time.  You hopefully do it when you buy and sell a house.  Pretty simple.

Selling short is just as simple, but since most of us don’t sell short on a regular basis, it’s more unfamiliar to us.  Say your next door neighbor has been working long, tough hours.  She really needs a new car, but she doesn’t have the time or energy to shop for one herself.  She tells you what she wants…a 2008 Toyota Prius.  She wants to pay no more than $16,500 for the car.  You say, sure, neighbor.  You can buy that car from me for $16,500!  Then you find the exact one she wants that someone, terrified of the Prius recalls, is willing to sell for $13,500.  You buy that car for $13,500 and sell it to your neighbor for $16,500 and you made the difference for your time.  So, you sold a car that you didn’t own, then bought it for a lower price and profited by the difference.

Popularity: 91% [?]

Trading Consumer Confidence

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose for the third straight month in April to 57.9 from 52.3 the month prior, and stands at its highest point since September ’08. The present situation index also rose for the third straight month to 28.6 from 25.2 the month prior.

Consumer Confidence 4-27-10

Dawn-Renée's Consumer Confidence Trades 4-27-10

Here you can see my trades this morning using this news on the e-mini S&P.  The news was positive, and we saw the market go up as a result.  So, I wanted to buy, but I got in a little later than I wanted to; at 1204.  Working off of MMT’s proprietary Prediction Points, I decided to sell at 1205, which ended up being a pretty good decision.  I am a conservative trader.  Then, using one of MMT’s strategies, I was able to pull an additional 1/2 point on downward movement by selling short at 1204.25 (again, I missed some of that movement…I am a little SLOW, lol) and buying at 1203.75.

I traded one $5oo contract, so 1.5 points translates into 15% return on my money, or $87.50.  Pretty good for 2 minutes of work.  When I do that a few times a week, I easily add $1000 to my monthly income.

As soon as Jody gets his act together, I will post his trades from this morning.

Jody's Consumer Confidence 4-27-10

Jody's Consumer Confidence Trades 4-27-10

Okay, well, here are Jody’s trades.  He didn’t trade the movement on the immediate news, but used a MMT strategy to make the very next trade.  He traded three contracts and scaled his exit strategy.  He sold short at 1205, then bought one contact at 1204 and bought the other 2 at 1203.5.  This made him a total of 2 points on his three contracts.  That’s 20%, or $300 for a couple of minutes of work.  Then he was on to other things we needed to get accomplished, including some mortgage work and some yard work.  It’s that time of the year!

This illustrates how two completely different trading styles can make money, quickly, with Market Mover Trading!

Popularity: 67% [?]

Simulation vs. Live Trading with Infinity Futures

infinityat Thanks to Craig Ross with Infinity Futures Brokerage, who wrote the following article.  I use and recommend the Infinity AT platform.  With Infinity Futures, your orders always rest *on* the CME.  If you would like to give Infinity AT a try, contact Craig (his contact information is at the end of this article) for a free 4 week demo.

You have been using our Infinity AT platform in the simulated trading mode for the past couple of weeks which has hopefully given you a good idea of all of the great features our platform has to offer as well as how well you might expect to do in real live trading. In order to replicate real world trading as best as possible treat your simulated trades like they were in your real account: use realistic stops, trade the same number of contracts you will be trading in your real account, use the same strategies you plan on using in the real market, etc. Of course you can use the a simulator to experiment with, but once your experimenting is out of the way and you have your strategy down, stick to it over an extended period of time to see how it works.

While this practice is essential, the major difference is that you do not have the true psychological component of trading taking effect, which is the fear and greed associated with trading when you are risking real money. Many traders tend to gloss over this seemingly unimportant aspect of trading, but after you have your trading methodology down, I recommend you read (and follow) a book on the psychology of trading to get your mental state in order, also. Taking a loss when your stop order is hit doesn’t hurt as bad when it is just play money, but will you be able to place that stop loss order and let it get hit when real money is at stake? Likewise, letting a winning trade run isn’t too hard in simulation mode, but will you have the tendency to get out too early and book a small profit when it is the real deal? Make sure you are psychologically prepared to stick to your strategy and trading plan when your human emotions try to take over.

Once you think you have your trading methodology down and are mentally prepared to trade your hard earned risk capital it makes sense to start out small. Just like a pilot will train on a computer simulator for hours and then take the wheel of a real plane, they still need to solo practice in the air without passengers before they become reliable enough to be trusted with the lives of others. In other words, in the beginning you don’t need to trade as many contracts, as you might eventually do once you are confident with how your real trading has been progressing. When you decide to enter the real world of trading with a live account start out slow as you may find there are some additional emotional obstacles and trading mistakes that you need to get over or make adjustments for.

Beware – Some simulated trading platforms are designed to be easier than real life trading especially when it comes to limit orders, which will give you a false sense of security. For example, these platforms fill your limit orders even if the limit price is hit just once, which is not indicative of what you will experience in real trading. In electronic futures trading, limit orders are filled on a “first come, first served” basis, meaning if there are currently 600 contracts trying to sell at 855.50 and you place an order to sell 5 at 855.50, 600 contracts need to get filled before you start to get filled. So depending on how many contracts trade at each 855.50 tick you may need to see several ticks at that price before your order is filled, in fact 605 contracts have to trade at 855.50 before all 5 of your contracts are filled.  Our Infinity AT platform actually waits until the market trades through your limit order, in this case 855.75, before it will report a fill to you therefore, making it harder than real life trading in this regard. We would rather make this filling of your simulated limit orders harder, so you are prepared for the worst case scenario that will occur sometimes in the real trading environment.

Please feel free to call or email me if you have any additional questions on this subject.

Craig S. Ross
InfinityFutures.com
111 W Jackson BL, #2010
Chicago, IL 60604
800-322-8570
312-373-6250
Fax: 312-373-6256
ross [at] infinityfutures.com

Popularity: 29% [?]

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Market Mover Trading

Market Mover Trading grew out of the necessity to fill a void in the trading world. What if trading was so simple that everyone would do it... or at least there would be a trader in every home? Marker Mover Trading fills this void by providing tools for traders that legitimately give ANYONE a chance to succeed!